Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-16 1.814883 1.894028 1.977311 2.071946 2.177094 2.291053 2.424892
2025-11-23 1.716550 1.818258 1.928971 2.059671 2.211455 2.384427 2.599949
2025-11-30 1.659767 1.777714 1.909443 2.069685 2.262627 2.492177 2.793972
2025-12-07 1.582326 1.706587 1.847646 2.022617 2.238465 2.503069 2.864831
2025-12-14 1.534840 1.666276 1.817814 2.009384 2.251483 2.557526 2.993803
2025-12-21 1.490149 1.626325 1.785319 1.989485 2.252814 2.594687 3.100775
2025-12-28 1.471076 1.615397 1.786407 2.010140 2.305963 2.703088 3.320731
2026-01-04 1.459297 1.612206 1.796073 2.041230 2.373858 2.836752 3.598070
2026-01-11 1.432266 1.588909 1.779179 2.036258 2.391557 2.899271 3.771134
2026-01-18 1.411494 1.572353 1.769740 2.040056 2.420865 2.980586 3.988986
2026-01-25 1.375310 1.535239 1.732499 2.004507 2.391519 2.968905 4.036846
2026-02-01 1.352438 1.514124 1.715000 1.994720 2.398411 3.013948 4.198502
2026-02-08 1.330415 1.494063 1.698941 1.987238 2.409782 3.069822 4.399520
2026-02-15 1.308785 1.473769 1.681727 1.977110 2.416148 3.117486 4.594363
2026-02-22 1.296463 1.464911 1.679071 1.986939 2.452959 3.219987 4.938790
2026-03-01 1.264653 1.430020 1.640653 1.944241 2.405623 3.170094 4.907964
2026-03-08 1.246076 1.411881 1.624160 1.932344 2.405984 3.205733 5.101485
2026-03-15 1.226094 1.391425 1.603941 1.914216 2.395293 3.219970 5.243860
2026-03-22 1.220746 1.389932 1.609234 1.933283 2.445345 3.352847 5.767270
2026-03-29 1.219006 1.393050 1.620773 1.961868 2.512804 3.528789 6.532040
2026-04-05 1.205889 1.380704 1.610563 1.957346 2.524118 3.592595 6.957458
2026-04-12 1.196075 1.372516 1.605845 1.960852 2.549253 3.688604 7.585246
2026-04-19 1.174591 1.348268 1.578120 1.928239 2.509657 3.639685 7.551163